Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2362 Horizon	PAE 18:09	SFO 20:23	16%	5%	2.7%	no record
AS 2139 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PAE 08:18	SFO 10:31	22%	7%	2.7%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 11:07 → LAX 13:50AS 2278 · flown by Horizon	3h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 17:15 → SFO 18:37AS 726	7h 30m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:03 → SNA 09:56AS 2270 · flown by Horizon	2h 19m Santa Ana	SNA 12:15 → SFO 13:53AS 3441 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	PAE 09:09 → SAN 12:04AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	3h 35m San Diego	SAN 15:39 → SFO 17:15AS 1450	8h 06m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:00 → LAS 09:25AS 380	2h 49m Las Vegas	LAS 12:14 → SFO 13:50AS 570	6h 50m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON