tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 349 United RNO 14:15 ORD 20:17 19% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 25m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → RNO 12:47 → PHX 14:45AA 1437 3h 59m Phoenix PHX 18:44 → ORD 00:16 +1AA 2201 9h 29m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:54 → SFO 15:24UA 2279 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 18:24 → ORD 00:49 +1UA 1958 8h 55m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → RNO 11:03 → DFW 16:27AA 1911 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → ORD 22:12AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 9h 09m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 8h 29m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 14:40 → ORD 18:57DL 2377 7h 52m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 3h 27m Denver DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:45UA 377 8h 04m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → ORD 22:52UA 1887 9h 14m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 52m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → ORD 20:11UA 1922 6h 33m 70% 52%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:06 → SFO 09:17UA 755 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 10:19 → ORD 16:33UA 2827 6h 27m 53% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON