tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Hobby departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Hobby departures running late: 75% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 12 departures that took off between 3:33 PM and 4:33 PM CDT, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window3:33 PM–4:33 PM CDT
    Sample12 flights, 9 late (75%)
    Comparison33% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour
    Median delay28.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:33 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Observed

    Hobby departure delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal

    What changed: late share 75% → 46%

    Of 13 departures that took off between 8:20 PM and 9:20 PM CDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:20 PM–9:20 PM CDT
    Sample13 flights, 6 late (46%)
    Comparison38% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour
    Median delay13.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-24 02:20 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Observed

    Hobby departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 46% → 75%

    Of 12 departures that took off between 8:55 PM and 9:55 PM CDT, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:55 PM–9:55 PM CDT
    Sample12 flights, 9 late (75%)
    Comparison39% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour
    Median delay34.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-24 02:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 24, 11:33 PM CDT: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.