tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports. Inbound-aircraft alerts are not on the wire yet, so check the flight page for those.

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Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

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Type: Delay × Clear filters
Latest per event All updates
EDT, Oct 16 26 min ago
Forecast 73% Major Developing Escalation Delay LGA departures

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

What changed: 62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 73%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View LGA
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 54% Significant New Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 54%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View EWR
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 57% Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View EWR
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 64% Significant Resolved Delay LGA departures

Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 64%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View LGA
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 49% Significant New Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 49%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View JFK
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 49% Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 49%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View JFK

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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