Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 59% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-16 19:54 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 54%
What changed: 59% → 54% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 16, 3:00 PM EDT · 4.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-16 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%
What changed: 54% → 62% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 16, 4:00 PM EDT · 3.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-16 21:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?