tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-16 19:54 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 16, 6:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.