tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports. Inbound-aircraft alerts are not on the wire yet, so check the flight page for those.

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Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.

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Metro areas

Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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h

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

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Airport: JFK × Clear filters
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EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Confirmed Significant Developing Update Traffic restriction JFK arrivals

FAA updates JFK ground delay program

What changed: reason now “thunderstorms”

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to JFK (JFK), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 60 min and a maximum of 133 min. Departures to JFK are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗ Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View JFK
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 49% Significant New Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 49%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View JFK
EDT, Oct 16 2 h ago
Forecast 49% Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 49%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View JFK

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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