tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Monday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 4:27 PM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Monday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 73 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.3 over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 25, 8:00 AM EDT · 20.4 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-25 13:33 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Monday to about 2

    What changed: about 5 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.6 over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 25, 3:00 PM EDT · 13.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-25 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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