tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday to about 1

Current state
Resolved at 9:27 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 76 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.4 over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 3:00 AM EDT · 13.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday to about 1

    What changed: about 6 → 1

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 1 of the 76 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.4 over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 8:00 AM EDT · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 13:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?