tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 25%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:57 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View FLLFlights at FLL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 4:00 AM EDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 25%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 25%; calm-weather level 21%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Monday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)24% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 5:00 AM EDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?