tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 59 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View SMFFlights at SMF

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 18 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 4:00 PM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.