tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 24%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:57 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 5:00 AM EDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 09:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 24%, near normal

    What changed: 40% → 24%; calm-weather level 21%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)24% over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 6:00 AM EDT · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?