tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 72 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 38%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:57 PM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 9:00 AM PDT · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 17:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 38%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 38%; calm-weather level 34%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 7:00 PM PDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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