tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 87 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 55%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 2:57 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for LAX departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 137 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 137 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 AM PST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 55%, near normal

    What changed: 57% → 55%; calm-weather level 48%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 2:00 PM PST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?