tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MCI departures

Updated model puts Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 5:00 PM CST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 23:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 51%

    What changed: 41% → 51% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 12:00 PM CST · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.