tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 32%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:58 AM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 2:00 AM PST · 9.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:44 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 32%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Monday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)32% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM PST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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