tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Monday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 59 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.8 over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 11:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 16:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Monday

    What changed: about 6 → 6 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 59 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.0 over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 17:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Monday

    What changed: about 6 → 5 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 59 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.4 over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.