Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:26 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 130 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 17:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 129 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 129 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM EST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?