tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 58%

    What changed: 46% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%

    What changed: 58% → 52% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.