tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SNA departures

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 6:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.