tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 72%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 8:00 PM CST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday at 83%

    What changed: 56% → 83% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)83% over 66 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 72%

    What changed: 83% → 72% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 61%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 66 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 PM CST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 23:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 6:04 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.