tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 10:58 AM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SMFFlights at SMF

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 AM PST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 34%

    What changed: 50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)34% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 3:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

    What changed: 34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)32% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 10:00 AM PST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?