tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MCI departures

Model lowers Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 38%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 2:28 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Kansas City departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Kansas City departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 38%, near normal

    What changed: 47% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCI departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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