tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay IAH departures

Model lowers Bush departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 43%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:28 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View IAHFlights at IAH

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Bush 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 6:00 PM CST · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 01:33 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Bush departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 43%, near normal

    What changed: 56% → 43%; calm-weather level 36%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Bush 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 7:00 PM CST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 02:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?