tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 74 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MSY departures

Model lowers New Orleans departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:26 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MSYFlights at MSY

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers New Orleans departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 22%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?