Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 36%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 10:56 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Wednesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 8:00 AM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 36%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 36%; calm-weather level 29%
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 36% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 10:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?