Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 25%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 25%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 25%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Friday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 25% over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?