Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?