tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 80 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 69% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 88 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 59%

    What changed: 69% → 59% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 88 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 80%

    What changed: 59% → 80% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 80% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)80% over 88 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%

    What changed: 80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 88 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.