tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 65% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 79%

    What changed: 65% → 79% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%

    What changed: 79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.