tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 76 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SLC departures

Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 24%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 3:59 AM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 2:00 AM MST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 24%, near normal

    What changed: 44% → 24%; calm-weather level 20%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)24% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 3:00 AM MST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 10:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?