tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 62 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:58 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal

    What changed: 57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 22:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?