tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 59 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 18 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-08 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%

    What changed: 73% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 18 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-08 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 8, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.