tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 74 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 3:00 PM EDT · 4.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 60%

    What changed: 56% → 60% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 4:00 PM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 60%

    What changed: 60% → 60% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 5:00 PM EDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%

    What changed: 60% → 61% since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 6:00 PM EDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Oct 18, 9:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.