tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BWI departures

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:27 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 59% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%, near normal

    What changed: 59% → 52%; calm-weather level 49%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 32 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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