tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%

    What changed: 55% → 64% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%

    What changed: 64% → 64% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

    What changed: 64% → 67% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

    What changed: 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.