tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 71 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ATL departures

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 33%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View ATLFlights at ATL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 208 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 208 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 33%

    What changed: 44% → 33% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 208 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Friday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)33% over 208 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.