Model raises expected cancellations to about 61 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 14 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.2 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 14 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.2 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 7 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.1 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 61 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 15 → 61 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 61 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~61.1 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.