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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST
Latest activity: Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~6.3 over 42 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

What changed: about 6 → 19 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~19.0 over 42 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

What changed: about 19 → 16 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 37 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~15.5 over 37 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST