Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 47%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 33%
What changed: 47% → 33% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 47%
What changed: 33% → 47% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?