tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 11 cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.9 over 81 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 8 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.0 over 81 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.4 over 81 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.