tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant New Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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