Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 27%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 AM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 99 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 27%, near normal
What changed: 47% → 27%; calm-weather level 15%
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 AM Saturday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 27% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?