tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Updated model now expects about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 99 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.2 over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    What changed: about 6 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.7 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.