tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 231 h staleForecast cycle 66 minLightning 231 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (231 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (231 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Delay FLL departures

Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

Current state
Developing
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

    What changed: 53% → 64% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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