Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.1 over 36 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 11 among Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.6 over 36 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 3 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?