Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Sacramento departures 6–9 AM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 12 cancellations among Sacramento departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.0 over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 5 among Sacramento departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 36 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.9 over 36 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Sacramento departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 36 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.6 over 36 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.