Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 1
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 21 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.7 over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 1
What changed: about 6 → 1
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 1 of the 21 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~1.3 over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?