Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 27 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.3 over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 3 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 27 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.2 over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?