tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 37 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.